While other countries in the region were talking about dollar shortages, Paraguay saw the opposite: the guaraní strengthened against the US dollar. According to reports from the EFE news agency based on data from the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP), by early August 2026 the year-to-date appreciation exceeded 10% and the dollar traded below 6,000 guaraníes, one of its lowest levels in recent years. On the data ticker on our home page, in early October USDT on P2P platforms was around 5,700–5,800 guaraníes. This article explains why it happened and what it means for different people and businesses.

How the exchange rate is set in Paraguay

Paraguay has a floating exchange-rate regime: the price comes from supply and demand, and the BCP intervenes occasionally to smooth sharp moves, not to fix a level. The reference rate published by the BCP is a weighted average of interbank transactions. The price offered to the public by exchange houses and banks may be different, with its own buy-sell margin.

Why the guaraní appreciated

The BCP itself has noted that exchange-rate movements respond to a combination of factors rather than a single cause. Among those most often cited by analysts and the economic press are:

  • Foreign-currency inflows from exports, especially agricultural ones such as soybeans, when harvests and prices are favourable.
  • Investment-grade status obtained by Paraguay (Moody's raised the country to investment grade in 2024), which attracts capital and lowers financing costs.
  • Economic growth and confidence in macroeconomic stability.
  • The international dollar backdrop, although in 2026 the guaraní strengthened even during periods when the dollar was firm globally — something the BCP highlighted as unusual.

Who benefits from a strong guaraní

  • Importers and consumers of imported goods: electronics, vehicles, machinery and fuel cost less in guaraníes. The BCP observed that the appreciation helped lower the price of imported durable goods.
  • People with dollar debts and guaraní income: they need fewer guaraníes to repay each dollar.
  • Inflation: a lower exchange rate helps contain the prices of imported products.

Who loses

  • Exporters: they earn dollars and, when converting them, get fewer guaraníes to pay local wages and costs. Industry groups asked the BCP for more active intervention in 2026.
  • People paid in dollars (for example, remote workers for foreign companies) who spend in guaraníes.
  • Those who saved in dollars expecting depreciation: measured in guaraníes, their savings are worth less.
  • Inbound tourism and border trade, which lose competitiveness against neighbouring countries.

Will it last?

Nobody can know for sure. The BCP's expectations surveys at the start of the year projected a higher dollar for the end of 2026 than was observed by mid-year, which shows how hard it is to forecast the exchange rate. Factors that could reverse the trend include a fall in the prices of the commodities Paraguay exports, a weak harvest, global tightening that pulls capital out of emerging markets or more active intervention by the BCP.

A worked example

Someone who earns 1,000 dollars a month working remotely received about 6,200 guaraníes per dollar at the start of 2026, roughly 6.2 million guaraníes. With the dollar around 5,800, the same amount is worth about 5.8 million: around 400,000 guaraníes less each month, even though the dollar salary has not changed. A shop that imports 10,000 dollars of goods, on the other hand, needs about 4 million guaraníes less than at the beginning of the year.

Practical tips

  1. If you import: a strong guaraní is a chance to negotiate prices, but do not assume it will last; consider hedging part of your future purchases.
  2. If you export or earn in dollars: consider converting gradually rather than all at once, and review your guaraní costs.
  3. If you save: diversifying across currencies reduces the risk of being wrong with a single bet.
  4. If you use USDT: compare the P2P price with exchange houses and banks, including fees and timing.

Data to follow

  • The BCP's daily reference rate.
  • The BCP's Monetary Policy Report (IPoM) and Economic Expectations Survey.
  • Monthly exports and international soybean prices.
  • Interest-rate decisions by the BCP and the US Federal Reserve.
  • The price of USDT on P2P platforms as a quick reference for the informal market.

How it compares with Bolivia

The contrast with neighbouring Bolivia is striking. In 2026 Bolivia had to abandon a fixed rate after years of dollar shortages, while Paraguay's floating guaraní moved in the opposite direction, gaining value. The difference comes largely from reserves, export flows and confidence: a currency that floats freely and has dollars coming in can absorb shocks through the price, while a fixed peg without enough reserves eventually breaks.

Conclusion

The strength of the guaraní in 2026 reflects real factors — exports, investment grade, stability — and has clear winners and losers. For decisions, the key is not guessing the next move but understanding your own exposure: if you earn in one currency and spend in another, the exchange rate is a risk worth managing.

Informational and educational content. Not financial or foreign-exchange advice. For official rates, check the website of the Central Bank of Paraguay.